*This article is based on the latest laws and statistical data as of 2025.

1. The Dawn of Vacant House Law: Beyond the Barriers of Private Property Rights

The "hands-off" era before 2014

First, let's turn back the clock a little and look back at the time in Japan when the Vacant Houses Act did not exist. At that time, the local government was shrouded in a deep sense of powerlessness. Even if the abandoned house next door was on the verge of collapse and roof tiles were falling onto the school route, city hall officials could not even "enter the premises without the owner's permission."

Behind this lies the strong "property rights" guaranteed by Article 29 of the Japanese Constitution. Reflecting on the prewar experience, it has been considered that public authorities should be extremely cautious about interfering with private property. Disputes over "neighborly relations" under the Civil Code have always been handled as private matters (non-intervention in civil matters), and the government could only repeatedly ask people to "resolve the issue through discussion."

However, the declining birthrate, aging population, and declining population have led to a situation where even those people with whom to "discuss" have disappeared. The owner is unknown, or the heirs are scattered among dozens of people and cannot be contacted. The increase in such "land with unknown owner" has caused the problem of abandoned vacant houses to explode.

2015: The Arrival of a Paradigm Shift

To break this deadlock, the first Vacant Houses Act was enacted and fully implemented in May 2015. This law marked a major turning point in postwar land law, as it granted the government the following powerful powers:

2. The impact of the 2023 amendment: the creation of new "poorly managed vacant houses"

Why was the amendment necessary?

Even after the law came into effect in 2015, the pace of increase in vacant houses showed no signs of slowing. The issue that became apparent on the ground was that once a house is designated as a "specific vacant house" (a dangerous house on the verge of collapse), it is already too late to do anything about it.

In other words, even if the government takes action after the roof falls and the walls collapse, it is impossible to repair and reuse the building. In addition, demolition costs are so high that owners cannot pay, and in many cases the costs end up being borne by taxes (which cannot be recovered).

Therefore, the government carried out a major revision of the Vacant Houses Act in December 2023 (Reiwa 5). The key words are "early detection and early treatment."

What is a "vacant house that is not being managed properly"?

The biggest feature of the revised law is the creation of a new category called "poorly maintained vacant houses." This refers to houses that are not yet at risk of collapse, but are at high risk of becoming designated vacant houses in the future if left unattended.

Specifically, the following situations are assumed:

   
• ● The window glass has been left broken.
   
• ● Weeds and garden trees are overgrown and are threatening to overtake the neighboring property.
   
• ● Peeling is observed on parts of the exterior wall.
 

Until now, the government has not been able to take strong action against such "mild" deterioration. However, after the amendment, it has become possible to provide guidance and warnings at this stage, and even to impose a strong penalty, namely the "cancellation of tax benefits," which will be discussed later.

3. Economic Impact: The Logic Behind the Quadruple Increase in Property Tax

We often see reports in the media that "property taxes will increase sixfold" or "fourfold." Do you understand the exact basis for these figures? This is not simply a tax rate increase, but a de facto tax increase due to the removal of "special exemptions (discounts)."

The mechanism of the residential land exemption and the impact of its cancellation

In Japan's tax system, there are policy considerations for "land for people to live on (residential land)," and special provisions have been established to significantly reduce the taxable amount of fixed asset tax.

Thus, until now, there has been an incentive to leave a house standing rather than demolish it, because "land taxes were low even if it was dilapidated." However, under the revised Vacant Houses Act, this "1/6 exemption" will be lifted once a local government issues a notice regarding a "vacant house that is being poorly maintained."

A simple calculation would show that the tax amount would be six times higher, but in reality, there are "burden adjustment measures" to mitigate the sudden tax increase, so in many casesApproximately 3 times to 4 timesEven so, if the annual tax increases from 50,000 yen to 200,000 yen, it will be a major blow to owners, and they will be under clear economic pressure to "abandon their pets at a loss."

4. The reality as seen through data: Increasing number of vacant houses and government responses

Trends and future forecasts for the number of vacant houses

Based on data from the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, we visualize the trend in the number of vacant homes in Japan. The upward trend shows no signs of slowing down, and is predicted to accelerate further in the 2030s.

Of particular note is the fact that the number of vacant homes "not for rent or sale" (so-called abandoned vacant homes) has risen to approximately 3.85 million, an increase of approximately 370,000 since the previous survey. This means that there is a growing number of "dead" properties that are not on the market.

A forecasting model by Nomura Research Institute warns that unless progress is made in demolishing existing homes, the vacant house rate will exceed 20% by the 2040s, and could approach 50% in some depopulated areas. If half of a city becomes vacant, it will become impossible to maintain government services.

5. Regional Case Study: "Snow" and "Ruins" in Hokkaido

Collapse mechanism specific to cold regions

The vacant house problem varies from region to region. In Toyako Town, Hokkaido, and surrounding municipalities, where I conducted research, there was a serious risk that was incomparable to that in areas south of the Kanto region: snow load.

In homes where people live and heating is turned on, snow on the roof melts easily due to the heat from inside the home, and the snow is regularly removed. However, in vacant homes, snow continues to accumulate on the roof, turning into ice blocks that continue to exert a load of several tons. The beams and pillars of wooden houses reach their limits after just a few seasons of neglect, and one day they will suddenly collapse with a loud bang.

Even more frightening is falling snow. Ice blocks flying into a neighbor's living room, hitting a propane gas tank, or falling on a child walking on the street are not rare cases. This is why Hokkaido's criteria for designating specific vacant houses place emphasis on the risk of snow damage.

The problem of huge abandoned tourist spots

Another problem specific to tourist destinations like Toyako Onsen is the abandonment of large hotels built during the bubble period. While the demolition cost of a private home is in the range of several million yen, the demolition of a large reinforced concrete hotel can cost anywhere from several hundred million yen to over a billion yen.

If the company that owns the building goes bankrupt or is dissolved, who will bear the enormous costs? It is extremely difficult to reach a consensus among residents about using public funds (tax money) to cover demolition costs, which are equivalent to the annual budget of a local government. As a result, huge ruins like haunted hotels will continue to remain as intruders in the beautiful landscape. This is a national-level issue that cannot be solved by the Vacant Houses Act (guidance to individual owners) alone.

6. Global Comparison: How the World is Competing

On the other hand, if we look overseas, we can see that the penalties for vacant houses are stricter than in Japan. In Europe and the United States, the idea that "ownership comes with obligations" is firmly established, and abandoning a house is considered a social evil.

Compared to these examples, Japan's Vacant Houses Act could be said to have just reached the "starting line." While Europe and the United States enforce action through "penalties," Japan still appears to be trying to encourage action through "guidance and incentives," but the 2023 revision is a signal that the balance has clearly shifted toward "stricter enforcement."

7. Conclusion: Exit Strategy for Owners

Linked to the mandatory inheritance registration in 2024

One thing we must not forget, along with the revision of the Vacant Houses Act, is the "mandatory inheritance registration" that began on April 1, 2024. Registration, which was previously optional, will now be mandatory, and if you do not apply within three years of learning of the inheritance, you may be subject to a fine of up to 100,000 yen.

This will gradually close the loophole of claiming the property is "unknown owner." The government is linking the land registry with the family register, pinpointing who is responsible, and establishing a system to issue guidance notices based on the Vacant Houses Act.