*This article is based on the latest laws and statistical information as of December 2025.

1. From "Asset" to "Social Responsibility": A Paradigm Shift in the Definition of Vacant Houses

First of all, when discussing the "vacant house problem," it is essential to have an accurate understanding of its definition. Generally, a vacant house is a building that has not been occupied for a long period of time and has no history of using lifelines (water, electricity, gas). However, did you know that the current legal system (Act on Special Measures Concerning the Promotion of Measures for Vacant Houses, etc., hereinafter referred to as the "Vacant House Act") clearly divides vacant houses into stages based on the degree of government intervention?

The important point here is that it is not simply a matter of "no one living in the property" but rather "whether or not it is maintained" that will be the deciding factor in determining the owner's fate.

What is the new and frightening category of "poorly managed vacant houses"?

Previously, strong penalties from the government were limited to "specified vacant houses" that were in imminent danger of collapsing. If a house is designated as a specified vacant house, the preferential treatment for fixed asset tax (special exemption for residential land) is cancelled, the tax amount jumps up to six times, and ultimately the house may be subject to forced demolition by administrative execution.

However, due to the revision of the law in 2023,"Poorly maintained vacant house"This refers to the stage where "there is no risk of collapse at present, but if left as is, there is a risk that it may become dangerous (specified vacant house) in the future."

Specifically, the following situations apply:

• ● A window is broken or left open.
• ● Weeds and garden trees are overgrown and are crossing over into neighboring properties and roads.
• ● Part of the exterior wall has fallen off or signs etc. are unstable.
• ● There are signs that the property is a source of pests or harmful insects.

In other words, whereas before the government could not intervene until the property was in ruins, after the amendment, the government can now provide guidance when the windows are broken. Even if the property is in the stage of being a "vacant house that has been poorly maintained," if the government does not follow the advice of the government,The special exemption for residential land on fixed asset tax will be lifted.This is what happened.

Therefore, the owner's complacent attitude of "it's okay because it's not yet at the point where it will collapse" will no longer be valid. The government's monitoring focus has definitely shifted to an earlier stage, and it can be said that a system has been established in which leaving the building unattended will directly lead to economic losses.

The impact of the mandatory inheritance registration system starting in April 2024

Further putting pressure on owners is the mandatory inheritance registration that came into effect on April 1, 2024. This is a national project to resolve the problem of land with unknown owners, which has been a breeding ground for the vacant house problem.

Specifically, from the day you learned that you had inherited real estate.Within 3 yearsIf you fail to do so without a valid reason,Fine of up to 100,000 yenIn addition, if you have inherited real estate in the past that has not yet been registered, you will need to register it during the grace period until March 31, 2027.

This means that it is no longer legally permissible to continue with a situation where the title to a vacant house remains in the name of a deceased grandfather. The government is trying to clarify who is responsible for the vacant house through the land registry, and to determine who should be charged for management costs and taxes.

2. Japan's uniqueness revealed through historical background and comparison with other countries

So why has the number of vacant houses in Japan increased so dramatically that it has become a social problem? The reason lies in Japan's unique housing policy and market structure since the end of World War II.

The curse of "new construction supremacy" and the "1940 system"

Japan's vacant home rate is approximately 13.8%, meaning that roughly one in seven homes is vacant (Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, 2023 Housing and Land Statistics Survey). This figure is extremely high even by global standards.

During the post-war reconstruction period from the ruins of the country, the government made "eliminating the housing shortage" its top priority and strongly promoted the acquisition of newly built homes. The Japan Housing Loan Corporation's loan program and the development of new towns are examples of this. The value that "homes should be purchased as new buildings" (new construction supremacy) that was formed during this period remains strong to this day.

Additionally, the fixed asset tax policy for land had a major impact. This was the "Residential Land Special Measures," which reduced taxes on land on which houses were built by up to one-sixth. Initially, this was an incentive to promote home ownership, but as the population began to decline, this became the biggest factor in creating the economic rationale for leaving vacant houses, as it was thought that "it is cheaper to leave abandoned buildings, even if they are dilapidated, than to clear the land."

[Comprehensive Comparison] Japan vs. Western Countries

To understand the unique nature of Japan's vacant house problem, we have compiled comparative data with other major developed countries. Please see the table below.

*Data for Japan is from the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications' "2018/2023 Housing and Land Statistics Survey," while data for the UK and US are estimates based on announcements from each country's housing ministry and data from the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism.

As can be seen from the table above, the UK and the US have a deeply rooted culture of "home = buying a used house, renovating it, and living in it." In the UK in particular, the government exerts strong control over vacant houses, imposing an additional tax of 50% to 300% on top of the regular council tax (resident's tax).

Meanwhile, Japan has a strong "faith in new construction," resulting in a stagnant market for used homes. As a result, the country is caught in a vicious cycle where new homes continue to be built despite a declining population, leaving older homes unattended and in surplus. As data from the OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) shows, Japan faces the paradox of a continuing increase in vacant homes despite the country's housing affordability issues.

3. Region-specific risks and possibilities: A case study of Toyako Town, Hokkaido

The problem of vacant houses is not a uniform issue across the country. The characteristics and risk factors vary greatly depending on the region. Here, we will take a closer look at the case of Toyako Town in Hokkaido, which is one of Japan's leading tourist destinations but also faces the harsh environmental conditions unique to cold regions, and analyze the forefront of the problem of vacant houses in rural areas.

The reality as seen from administrative data

An analysis of Toyako Town's assembly minutes and documents related to its vacant house countermeasure plan revealed that the number of specific vacant houses known to the town was not particularly large compared to the total number of homes. However, a simple survey conducted in 2025 revealed that the number of vacant houses was at a rate similar to the national average.

However, due to privacy concerns, it is not easy for the government to conduct on-site inspections. The current situation is that they rely on objective data such as water outage information and reports from local residents to understand the actual situation. In other words, it is believed that there are many "potentially poorly managed vacant houses" that cannot be identified through simple inspections.

4. The 2040 Problem and Future Options

Finally, we will consider future predictions and specific actions we should take. According to a forecast by Nomura Research Institute, if current trends continue, the vacant house rate in Japan will be approximately 25% by 2040, and in an even more pessimistic scenario, it is estimated to exceed 30%. This means that more than one in four houses will be vacant in the future, which would mean the collapse of local communities.

"Residentially Induced Zones" and Infrastructure Withdrawal

In municipalities facing declining populations, it will become financially impossible to maintain and update all roads, waterworks, and bridges. What will happen as a result? In the name of "compact city" development, the selection (line drawing) will likely be made clear between areas where administrative services will be maintained (residentially-oriented areas) and areas where infrastructure maintenance will effectively be reduced or withdrawn.

If your vacant house is included in the "Exclusion Area," its asset value will approach zero, making it impossible to sell or rent. Your only option may be to pay a high price to demolish it and return it to nature (return it to wilderness).

Four options owners should consider now

To prevent this "evaporation of asset value," owners should urgently consider the following four options:

1. Selling (vacant house bank/real estate company) This is the most sound solution. Don't focus on the price, prioritize getting rid of it. You may need to be prepared to be happy even if you can sell it for just 1 yen.	2. Use (rental, private lodging, warehouse) Instead of spending too much on renovations, rent out the property as a DIY-friendly property. However, the maintenance work will continue.
3. Demolition (demolition and vacant lot) Although property taxes will increase, the risk of compensation for poor management will be eliminated. In some cases, it may be easier to sell the property. Check the local government's "demolition subsidy" system.	4. Abandonment (system of inherited land becoming the property of the national treasury) This is a new system that will begin in 2023. There are strict requirements (such as the land being vacant), but by paying the inspection fee and charges to the government, ownership of the land can be returned to the government.

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