*This article is based on survey information as of December 2025.

1. Rethinking the origins of settlement: two historical models

First of all, why did humans abandon their risk-dispersing survival strategy of nomadic (traveling) lifestyle and choose to settle in a specific location? As mentioned above, the reason is generally considered to be the beginning of agriculture. However, if we analyze this objectively from an ecological perspective, settling is simply the result of an extremely economically rational behavior chosen as a result of weighing the trade-offs between "reducing travel costs" and "ensuring a stable supply of resources."

From a global historical perspective, there are two main models for the establishment of settlement. Japan, and Hokkaido in particular, was a pioneer in the "non-agricultural settlement model," a rare phenomenon in the world.

The Jomon Model: Resource Diversity and the Beginnings of Welfare

Conclusive evidence that overturns the conventional theory that the "agricultural revolution = sedentary settlement" is found in the Jomon archaeological sites, including the "Irie Shell Mound" in Toyako Town, Hokkaido. Around 1,800 BC, during the Late Jomon period, an advanced sedentary society had already formed in this area. What is particularly noteworthy is the fact that they were able to achieve long-term settlement by using the abundant marine resources provided by Funka Bay - herring, flounder, tuna, dolphins, etc. - as an economic base, without choosing the hard labor of farming.

Furthermore, a discovery of great importance in understanding the social structure of the time was made at this Irie shell mound: the bones of an adult human who had suffered from muscular atrophy (likely due to polio or similar disease) and was disabled in all four limbs.

In hunter-gatherer societies, physical disabilities are serious handicaps that directly affect survival. However, the fact that this individual survived until adulthood proves that the community at the time already had sufficient surplus food, and had a "social welfare system" and "ethics" in which the entire community dedicatedly cared for the weak who could not directly contribute as labor. In other words, "wealth redistribution" and "mutual aid (care)," which are essential functions of cities, existed from the early stages of settlement, without waiting for the agricultural revolution or the birth of the nation-state.

European model: Structural transformation through technological innovation

On the other hand, the typical "agricultural revolution" we learn about in world history textbooks is a model that occurred in medieval Europe from the 11th to 13th centuries, where pure technological innovation was the driving force behind dramatic changes in social structure.

Specifically, the heavy plow was introduced to cultivate heavy clay soil, and the three-field system was adopted to establish a system for maintaining soil fertility. This dramatically improved land productivity, generating "surplus produce" in rural areas. Markets were formed to exchange this surplus, leading to the Commercial Renaissance and the development of city-states, such as the Hanseatic League.

Comparing these two models highlights the essential differences in settlement.

2. Paradox of Modern Cities: The Trade-Off Between Efficiency and Vulnerability

Let's turn the clock forward to the present day. Since the Industrial Revolution in the 18th century, the role of cities has changed from being "centers of consumption and politics" to "huge clusters of industrial production and economic activity." The large-scale population movement from rural areas to cities has served as an engine of economic growth, but at the same time it has created serious "distortions."

Data on urban expansion and its environmental impact

According to data from the World Bank and the United Nations, approximately 551 TP3T of the world's population currently resides in urban areas. By 2050, this proportion is projected to reach approximately 701 TP3T. This concentration is rational from the standpoint of economic efficiency, and in fact, more than 801 TP3T of global GDP is generated in urban areas. However, the price it comes at is that cities consume two-thirds of the world's energy and emit more than 701 TP3T of greenhouse gases, putting them at risk of sustainability.

The graph below compares the urbanization rate and agricultural employment rate of Japan with that of other major countries. Japan's unique structure can be seen.

The reason behind Japan's exceptionally high urbanization rate of 92% is the geographical constraints of a large number of mountainous areas and extremely limited habitable land area. As a result of the concentration of population and functions in the plains to the maximum extent possible, Japan has formed a "high-density society" that is unparalleled in the world.

The pros and cons of agglomeration: a hotbed of innovation or a mass of risk?

This extreme urbanization involves a powerful trade-off.

3. The Frontline of Marginal Villages: The Crisis and Challenge of "Settlement" in Toyako Town

So what is happening in rural areas where resources have been sucked up by cities? We will examine the modern-day "crisis of settlement" using the example of Toyako Town in Hokkaido, where the Jomon people once enjoyed a prosperous settled life.

The silent emergency of population decline

Toyako Town is a scenic town whose main industries are tourism and agriculture, but the wave of population decline is relentlessly sweeping over it. The population, which was 8,442 in the 2020 census, is expected to fall to 8,068 by early 2024. In particular, the natural increase/decrease (the difference between the number of births and deaths) has been significantly negative, and statistically speaking, concerns have not been dispelled that the town may be at risk of disappearing.

However, the town is not sitting back and waiting for death. In its "Population Vision," the town has set extremely ambitious KPIs (key performance indicators) of raising the total fertility rate from the current 1.25 to 1.40, and increasing social growth (net in-migration) to an additional 30 people per year by 2045.

"Related population" as a KPI

What is noteworthy here is that the town is not simply increasing the "resident population," but is also placing emphasis on creating a "related population." Related population refers to people who have a relationship with the town that is more than tourism but less than immigration. Toyako Town is adopting a strategy of accepting workcations and promoting dual-base living to increase the number of people who contribute to the local economy and community, even if they do not physically live there.

This can be seen as a paradigm shift from the traditional administrative view of settlement as "fixing oneself in a place where one has a resident registration" to a view of settlement as "a network of continuous relationships and care."

4. Prospects for "Settlement 2.0": A decentralized, autonomous society driven by technology

In the future, settlement will no longer be a zero-sum game of urban or rural areas, but will likely shift to "decentralized autonomous settlement (Settlement 2.0)" that combines the benefits of both with the power of digital technology. The key to realizing this is the production revolution brought about by "smart agriculture."

Smart Agriculture: Explicitizing Tacit Knowledge and "Neo-Peasantry"

Smart agriculture (GPS self-steering tractors, drone sensing and pesticide spraying, automatic water management systems, etc.), which is currently being rapidly implemented in Hokkaido and other areas, is fundamentally transforming agriculture from a "hard, hard labor, artisanal craft dependent on experience and intuition" to a "knowledge-intensive, data-management industry."

This goes beyond simple labor savings. By converting agricultural technology into "explicit knowledge" as data, it will become possible for even less experienced farmers to produce crops of a certain quality. This technological innovation will enable people with desk jobs in cities to overcome physical constraints and realize a "half-farmer, half-X" lifestyle, in which they can get involved in agricultural production on weekends or during certain seasons.

I predict this will mark the rise of a new, technologically-armed agricultural lifestyle known as "Neo-Peasantry," which is distinct from the peasantry of the Middle Ages. These people will travel between urban intellectual productivity and rural food production sites, serving as a catalyst for returning value to both.

Maximizing QOL through digital supplementation

Just as the Jomon people settled in Irie Shell Mounds in search of "abundant food and a rich environment," modern people also essentially seek "quality of life (QOL)."Until now, in order to enjoy advanced services such as medical care, education, and entertainment, people had no choice but to live in cities where the cost of living was high.

However, advances in telemedicine, online education, and VR/AR technologies are "digital complements" that are gradually eliminating the "inconvenience" that was the biggest drawback of settling in rural areas. As a result, an environment is being created where people can enjoy the benefits of rural areas, such as a rich natural environment and low living costs, while also receiving intellectual services equivalent to those in cities.

---