〜The policy shift from FIT to FIP and the deeper meaning of the opposition movement by local residents
*This article is based on data from international organizations and domestic policies as of December 2025.
"Morality without economics is nonsense, and economics without morality is a crime." These words, left behind by Ninomiya Sontoku, sharply hit the heart of the energy problem facing Japan in the Reiwa era.
In the 21st century, in order to combat the common threat to all humanity that is climate change, we have accelerated the shift to renewable energy under the banner of "decarbonization." Large-scale solar power plants, or "mega solar," have led the way in this effort. Technological innovation has been remarkable, and solar power, once synonymous with high costs, now reigns supreme as an "economic winner," surpassing even fossil fuels.
However, behind these glorious achievements, irreparable friction is arising. The story takes place in Hokkaido, Japan's last remaining unexplored region. Irreplaceable ecosystems such as the Kushiro Wetlands and Shiretoko are being washed away by waves of development, spreading division and distrust within local communities. The pursuit of economic rationality will hurt nature, while efforts to protect nature will stall the energy transition - how can we overcome this dilemma?
This article thoroughly examines the pros and cons of mega-solar power plants through economic analysis based on the latest data from the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) and a detailed report on the serious conflicts occurring on-site in Hokkaido. Combining real-world data and voices from the field, the article questions the nature of the "social license" necessary for future energy development.
1. The True Nature of Economic Necessity: Why Mega Solar Projects Continue to Continu
Data proves "overwhelming cost reduction"
First, we need to put aside emotional arguments and face the economic facts. Why has mega solar development continued to this extent? The answer is quite simple: because it is profitable, and above all, because it is cheap.
According to the report "Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2023" published by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) in 2024, a seismic cost reduction is occurring in the global energy market. Please see the graph below, which visualizes the trend in the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for utility-scale solar power generation.
[Trends in global utility-scale solar power generation LCOE (levelized cost of electricity)]
Source: Compiled from IRENA data (values are global weighted averages)
What is particularly noteworthy is the fact that costs are expected to fall by nearly 901 TP3T between 2010 and 2023 (70-891 TP3T depending on the data). This is due to the efficiency of the module manufacturing process, the optimization of the supply chain, and the mastery of construction techniques. In other words, solar power generation is no longer an expensive option adopted by environmentally conscious countries, but has evolved into the most rational economic choice.
From FIT to FIP: The system encourages pressure for self-reliance
In addition, the design of Japan's domestic energy system has also changed dramatically. The Feed-in Tariff (FIT) system, which once sparked the solar energy bubble, is nearing the end of its useful life. It has been replaced by the Feed-in Premium (FIP) system.
Under the FIP system, businesses are not simply required to generate electricity. They are required to make sophisticated business decisions, such as assessing price fluctuations in the wholesale electricity market, selling electricity during times of high demand (i.e., times when prices are high), and receiving a "premium (subsidy)." This means that renewable energy sources will not be given special treatment, but will be placed on the same competitive market playing field as other power sources.
However, a contradiction arises here. To continue making a profit under the FIP system, it is necessary to reduce power generation costs to the lowest possible level. As a result, operators seek land that is cheaper, larger, and easier to develop. And the land that was chosen was Hokkaido's vast wilderness and the forests surrounding its marshes.
| Comparison axis | The "light" of mega solar power plants (Economic and technological aspects) |
The "shadow" of mega solar power plants (Environmental and social aspects) |
|---|---|---|
| Cost competitiveness | Dramatically lower LCOE. It is not affected by rising fossil fuel prices and is one of the cheapest sources of power in the long term. |
In the pursuit of cheapness, development pressure is concentrated in areas around forests and marshes where land prices are low. |
| Energy Security | As a purely domestic energy source, it directly leads to an improvement in self-sufficiency. Break away from dependence on imported fuel. |
Land acquisition due to entry of foreign companies. Concerns that energy assets will be held by foreign capital. |
| Impact on the region | Increased property tax revenue. Effective utilization of idle land (abandoned farmland, etc.). |
Damage to tourism value due to destruction of the landscape. Increased risk of landslides and division of local communities. |
2. Report from Hokkaido: What must be protected and what will be lost
Hokkaido is now both a "testing ground" and a "frontline" for renewable energy development in Japan. Its vast land area and abundant solar radiation are a treasure trove for businesses, but it also contains ecosystems that cannot be replaced. The Kushiro Wetlands and the Shiretoko Peninsula are particularly serious cases.
Kushiro Wetlands: Man-made objects have increased 700-fold in 10 years
Kushiro Wetlands. Japan's largest wetland and a sacred place for the Japanese crane, a special natural monument. However, its boundaries are now under threat. According to a survey, the number of solar power generation facilities in Kushiro City and Kushiro Town was just one in 2014. By 2024, this number is expected to explode to a whopping 771 (including mega solar power plants).
Even more worrying is the site. It has been discovered that approximately 10 million square meters of the proposed site, which has been inquired about by Kushiro City, overlaps with the habitat of the northern salamander, a natural monument designated by the city. The habitat of the salamander, which is said to be a survivor of the Ice Age, is about to be buried under inorganic panels.
Furthermore, the impacts of deforestation are not limited to ecosystems. Have you heard of the phenomenon known as "mud plume"? This is when large amounts of sediment flow into rivers after heavy rain from land that has lost its water-retaining capacity, muddying marshes and lakes. Even in Pashikuru Marsh, designated an important wetland by the Ministry of the Environment, there are concerns about sediment inflow due to upstream development, increasing the risk of the marsh drying out and becoming "dead."
Alpinist Ken Noguchi and others initiated a signature campaign opposing solar development around the Kushiro Wetlands. Over 110,000 signatures were collected. This is not just a local opposition movement, but an expression of the discomfort felt by the entire nation against "excessive renewable energy development."
The reality is that existing ordinances and laws are not keeping up with the current situation in which businesses, including foreign-affiliated ones, are acquiring land one after another and development is progressing by exploiting loopholes in legal regulations.
Meanwhile, a different outcome was seen in Shari Town, home to a World Heritage Site. A "nature-loving residents' association" was formed to oppose a mega-solar power plant project at the tip of the Shiretoko Peninsula.
They collected 47,600 signatures of opposition, far exceeding the town's population (approximately 11,000), and submitted them to the mayor. The mayor took this important public opinion into consideration and took a firm stance against the plan, resulting in the developer's withdrawal. This is a rare success story in which "local will" has stopped a major investment, and it is giving courage to local governments across the country.
A dilemma for a tourism-based nation: A warning for the future of Lake Toya
This type of conflict is not unique to Kushiro or Shiretoko. For example, a similar risk scenario is quite possible in Toyako Town, which is globally acclaimed as the "Toyako-Usu Geopark."
The value of Lake Toya lies in its stunning scenic beauty as a caldera lake and its crystal clear water. What would happen if the slopes of the outer crater rim were simply cut open and lined with dark panels? The brand of the geopark, which touts "coexistence with nature," would be tarnished, and tourists would be disappointed. Furthermore, the decline in the slopes' water retention capacity would expose the surrounding residential areas to the threat of mudslides in the event of heavy rain disasters, which have become increasingly severe in recent years.
"Economic benefits are temporary, but the destroyed nature and landscapes are permanently lost." This harsh reality is something that regions that depend on tourism for their livelihood must be acutely aware of.
Conclusion: Shift from "quantity" to "quality" in development
Without fear of being misunderstood, it is not that mega solar power plants themselves are "evil." The problem lies in the "process" of selecting sites and the lack of "consensus building" with the local community.
What is necessary for Japan's future energy policy is thorough "zoning" that puts the brakes on unregulated development and guides it to appropriate locations. For example, rather than clearing forests, there are still options that do not exploit nature, such as "agricultural solar power generation (solar sharing)," which utilizes factory rooftops, abandoned farmland, or the space above farmland.
The government has finally begun to take steps to correct the "production and abandonment" trend, such as making it mandatory to set aside funds for disposal costs after a project ends through legal reforms in 2024. However, legal regulations alone are not enough. We, as consumers, need to be interested in where and how our electricity is produced, and take the stance of saying "no" to energy that is produced by damaging the environment.
"The future is not predicted, it is created."
We are now at a crossroads where we must face up to what we are losing in exchange for convenience and the costs involved, and choose a sustainable future.
Related Links
- IRENA (International Renewable Energy Agency)_Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2023
- Ministry of the Environment_Introduction of solar power generation and environmental conservation
- Agency for Natural Resources and Energy_Details and Operation of the FIP System
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