*This article is based on survey data and related laws and regulations as of December 2025.

1. The 2030 Problem: The Structural Crisis of Housing Stock and Quantitative Reality

In order to accurately grasp the seriousness of the vacant house problem, it is necessary to assess the "quality" of the vacant houses, rather than just the total number. Vacant rooms for rent and properties currently being sold may eventually circulate within the market. However, what we should be truly afraid of are the vacant houses classified as "other vacant houses" in the statistics.Properties that have no intended use and have been completely removed from the marketThe existence of.

The accelerating trend of increasing "other vacant houses"

According to a detailed analysis by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism and Nomura Research Institute (NRI), the number of "other vacant homes" increased by approximately 1.9 times over the 20 years from 1998 to 2018. This is not simply a temporary phenomenon caused by economic fluctuations, but suggests a structural collapse of the supply and demand balance in a society with a declining population.

Even more shocking is the forecast data for 2030. If the current trend continues, it is estimated that the number of "other vacant homes" will reach approximately 4.7 million.

The figure of 4.7 million households is not merely a statistical figure. It means that an entire town somewhere in Japan could become a ghost town, not just in a localized area, but simultaneously across the country. The hollowing out of cities directly threatens our lives in the form of disaster prevention risks, a deterioration in public safety, and increased administrative costs.

Why market principles alone cannot solve the problem

From an economic perspective, homes that are not in demand should be demolished and the land reused. However, there have been three powerful brakes on this "metabolism" in Japan's housing market.

• 1. Rising demolition costs and lack of economic rationality Due to rising labor costs and waste disposal costs, demolishing a typical wooden house can cost hundreds of thousands of yen. In rural areas with low land prices, it is not uncommon for the demolition cost to exceed the sale price of the vacant lot, making demolition a pure loss for the owner.
• 2. Perverse incentives in the fixed asset tax system Due to the existence of the "Residential Land Special Exception" (explained later), a system has existed for a long time in which those who leave buildings on land can enjoy a maximum one-sixth reduction in property tax. This has created a perverse incentive for those who believe that "even if a house is dangerous, it is better to leave it as it is rather tax-deductible than demolish it."
• 3. Unknown Ownership and Decision-Making Stagnation The number of properties that are legally "untouchable" due to owners' aging, the progression of dementia, or incomplete inheritance registration is increasing dramatically. Properties with complicated ownership relationships are the type that private real estate agents are most reluctant to own, and are the main reason why they are abandoned by the market.

2. Redesigning the "carrot" and "stick" approach: the mechanism behind the revised Vacant Houses Act

The revised Vacant Houses Act, enacted in 2023 to overcome this situation, is designed to prevent problems by dramatically speeding up the timing of government intervention."Poorly maintained vacant house"This involves a review of the associated tax penalties.

Under the previous law, the government could not take strong measures until a house was deemed a "specified vacant house" and was in imminent danger of collapse, but the revised law allows for intervention at an earlier stage. This is like a shift in policy from "treatment of terminal cancer" to "prevention of lifestyle-related diseases" in the medical field.

The powerful driver of special exceptions

What is particularly noteworthy is that the lifting of tax relief measures (effectively a tax increase), which previously could only be implemented when a building was on the verge of collapse, can now be applied at the stage of poor management, such as when windows are broken or weeds are overgrown.

This will clearly and urgently present the owner with the financial disadvantages of leaving the property unattended. For example, a property tax that was previously just 50,000 yen a year could suddenly jump to nearly 300,000 yen if a recommendation is made.

However, a serious problem arises here. Even if owners want to do something, who can they turn to if they live far away or lack the knowledge to do so? If the government wields the stick (tax increases) without the carrot (support) that shows a concrete path to a solution, owners will simply be driven into a corner, and as a result, abandonment (ownership becoming unknown) may increase.

The system that was established to act as that "carrot" and connect the government and owners was"Vacant House Management and Utilization Support Corporation"That's why.

3. Into areas beyond the reach of government: Functions and roles of support organizations

The system allows mayors of cities, towns, and villages to designate support corporations, which are NPOs, general incorporated associations, or private companies (real estate, construction, urban development companies, etc.) that are recognized as having specialized knowledge regarding the management and utilization of vacant houses. In other words, as a complement to the government, they are expected to demonstrate the mobility of the private sector, backed by a badge of trust.

As of the end of 2024, approximately 40 local governments across the country have already made this designation, and their roles can be summarized as follows:

International Comparison: Why did Japan choose the "Support Corporation" model?

To understand the uniqueness of Japan's approach, let's compare it with the preceding Western models for dealing with vacant houses, particularly the US "land bank" and the UK "council tax," which are based on different philosophies.

American-style land banks have strong authority, but require enormous amounts of public funding. Japan's local governments, struggling financially, no longer have the financial resources to purchase and maintain large numbers of vacant homes. Therefore, the "support corporation model," which seeks to resolve the issue by encouraging private sector vitality while giving maximum consideration to the private right of ownership, is a realistic and difficult choice that represents the optimal solution given Japan's legal system and financial circumstances.

Furthermore, compared to the UK's "Council Tax" (a punitive tax of up to four times the amount on vacant houses), Japan's tax not only threatens tax increases but also includes the assistance of support organizations, showing that it places more emphasis on a careful process.

4. Report from the field: Advanced initiatives in Hokkaido

The success of the system will depend not on armchair theory, but on its implementation on the ground. Hokkaido in particular has seen the start of support organizations working to address a variety of local issues and the introduction of new technologies, and is attracting attention as a model case for the future.

Taiki Town: Building a one-stop service center through public-private collaboration

In Taiki Town, Hokkaido, where the population is declining, the Taiki Town Development Lab General Incorporated Association was designated as a support organization in April 2024 and began active activities. Here, the "hub function" that transcends the boundaries between the government and private sector plays an important role.

• ● Complementing the government and ensuring its reliability The support organization takes on all consultations from owners of vacant houses that the government alone cannot handle. Backed by the "badge of trust" of being introduced by the town hall, the organization lowers the psychological hurdles for owners and provides support by accompanying them through the concrete steps of sorting out rights, demolishing the property, and selling the property.

Liquidating "negative assets" through technology

In Hokkaido, there is also an accelerating movement to use technology to rescue properties with low market value. For example, in 2025, Matsumae Town will launch a nationwide "distressed property" purchasing company,Albalink Co., Ltd.We have signed a cooperation agreement with

By utilizing the platform of a tech company with a nationwide network of investors, the company is attempting to tap into new demand for low-priced properties that local real estate agents are reluctant to handle, or properties with complicated legal rights. This "digital market supplementation" is an important solution model that many depopulated areas, including Taiki, should follow.

Niseko and Toyako Area: Complementing Ordinances and Private Sector Vitality

Meanwhile, the international resort towns of Niseko and Toyako have their own ordinances requiring owners to appoint a manager (and enter into a contract with a management company) in order to maintain the landscape and prevent snow damage.

The private property management market is already mature in this region, but support organizations are expected to play a role as a safety net for properties that fall through the cracks of this "market mesh" and for complex cases that private companies find difficult to handle. The key to operating the system is to optimize the division of roles between the government, private sector, and support organizations in line with the maturity of the local market.